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1998-04-28 22:37:35


Very Mild Recession Possible, Says Economist



Another economist predicts a mild recession for Great Britain. It could be worse for nations farther behind on y2k than Britain, he says.

This is from THE GUARDIAN (April 25).

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Sunday 26 April, 1998 The Millennium bug could cause a recession in 2000, even if measures to tackle it are largely successful, according to a new report. Even modest knock-on effects are likely to slow economic growth by between 0.5 and 2 per cent, according to Leo Doyle, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Benson.

The doomsday scenario of industry collapse is a "small but not insignificant possibility" that would lead to a global disaster "far worse than recession", he said.

Doyle has analysed spending patterns on solving the millennium bug, and forecast direct and spill-over effects on business. He concludes that spending on computer experts to tackle the bug is boosting economic growth by around 0.25 per cent this year. This is expected to accelerate next year, but will collapse in 2000 and 2001, after most of the problems are solved.


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