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1998-06-03 13:17:36


Opinion on Effects of Y2K: From Mild Effects to Collapse



The Washington, D.C. Year 2000 group sent out questionaires to 700 members, and 230 replied. Their opinions on y2k's effects in the United States ranged from mild to collapse (1%).

My views are in the 1% range, but the respondents are moving my way. They will continue to do so through 1999.

When these views hit the average guy, the bank runs will begin.

* * * * * * * *

The most obvious conclusion from the survey is that the overwhelming majority of the respondents believe that the United States will experience a significant economic impact from the Year 2000 issue. Correlating Table 1 and Table 2, we find the following:

84% believe that it will trigger at least a 20%+ drop in the stock market—over 1800 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, given its current levels—and some business bankruptcies.

Two-thirds (66%) believe that it will cause at least an economic slowdown, a rise in unemployment, and some isolated social incidents.

Over half (56%) believe that it will at the least result in a mild recession, isolated infrastructure and supply problems, and some runs on banks.

One-third (34%) believe that it will at the least result in a strong recession, local social disruptions, and many business bankruptcies.

One-fourth (26%) believe that in additional to all the above, the Y2K problem will at least result in political crises within the United States, regional supply and infrastructure disruptions, and regional social disruptions.

One-tenth (10%) believe at least that the United States will suffer another depression (or worse), that financial markets will collapse, that the national infrastructure will be crippled, and that martial law will be declared in some local areas.


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