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1997-07-30 09:55:45


38 Programmers Assess the Threat: Serious


Like economists, programmers disagree. Here is one survey of practicing mainframe programmers who have done their best to assess the threat to the economy of y2k.

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Computer experts predict hard times at century end, urge immediate action by government and private industry.

July 24, 1997

Submitted by Cory Hamasaki

Organized by Phil Edwards, an international group of 38 computer experts and Year 2000 researchers cast votes that predicted hard times at the end of the century.

Voting on a scale of 1 to 5, the experts used the Delphi Technique and the Internet to predict the future of the civilized world.

Mr. Edwards defined the scale as follows and challenged the Internet Newsgroup, Comp.Software.Year-2000, to take a stand on the Y2K problem.

5 = probable collapse of economy; start hoarding now.

3 = bump in the road; 80-hour weeks for all, 1999-2001.

1 = it ain't gonna happen.

The results were collected and tabulated by Tim Oxler

The 38 respondants had a total of 669.5 years of experience (an average of 17.6 years).

The average score was: 150.6 / 38 = 3.96 which implies serious problems with the world's computer systems.

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