Matryn Emery's organization is studying the effects of y2k on New York City and London -- the West's financial centers. His is what I would call a mild scenario. When you read it, think of what happens in every major city on earth. It will not just be London.
Note these two: "Banks: closed 1 December 1999-24 January 2000; Stock market: closed 20 December 1999-24 January 2000." If these institutions shut down for this long, what confidence will people have in banking on January 25? Some well-funded businesses can shut down for two months -- not many, but a few. But fractional reserve banks? Stocks? The recovery will take years -- maybe decades.
What effect will such events have on people's emotions? On their faith in government?
* * * * * * *
Power supply: 75% available December 1999 and 50% January 2000
Hospitals: four weeks of emergency-only cover
Telecoms: 75% available 1-20 January 2000
Transport: 30 days disruption
Banks: closed 1 December 1999-24 January 2000
Stock market: closed 20 December 1999-24 January 2000
Education: schools closed for four weeks
Post [Office]: 10 days disruption