With only 15% of the world's organizations having begun to repair their code, it is too late for the rest to recruit the programmers necessary to make the repairs. Outside of the US, in Third World nations, the problem seems impossible to solve. So says the Gartner Group in testimony (Nov. 4) before the House Subcommittee on Technology.
And my critics call me pessimistic!
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Gartner Group believes that less than 15% of enterprises have progressed past the initial assessment and planing stages of their Y2k projects. We expect the remainder to begin the remediation and testing phases in the next 6 months. Think of it -- 85% of the worlds enterprises will begin executing the largest IT project they have ever undertaken at virtually the same time! Clearly there are not enough skilled resources -- programmers, data base administrators, project managers, to complete the task in time to avoid damage due to the Year 2000. Competition for these scarce resources is already intense.
Enterprises with lower paid staff are losing more than two staff per month. COBOL programmers paid $12,000 per year in Mexico are being offered 400% raises to come to the US. Brazilian programmers paid $20,000 are in great demand in Portugal. Canadian programmers making $25,000 are being offered 100% - 200% raises to come to the US and Great Britain.