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1997-11-18 09:50:23


Most Old PC's Will Not Be Replaced by 2000


This appeared on Peter de Jager's discussion forum on November 17.

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Date: Mon, 17 Nov 1997 14:16:38 -0500 (EST) From:


Those fine people telling you to place your head in the sand are leading you down the road to disaster.

1). Most PC's will not be replaced by 2000. Think of the size of the current installed base (even excluding home use) and think of the realistic industry capacity to replace. They can't make enough. Further, there is not likely a single larger or medium organization that will be able to afford the capital costs to replace all their PC's in just two fiscal years. That's an unrealistic assumption. Lastly, even if we were to suspend reality and assume it will happen, you'll still see upwards to 50% of machines with non-compliant BIOS' just because of the inability of top tier manufacturers (and worse for the next level) to control the quality of their own supply chain.

2). User apps, even if replaced must be looked at now. There are too many financial types, and others who are making critical business assumptions NOW with applications that could be running fine, but producing bad results.

Also, again, look at the reality of the situation. Say you have 1200 PC users in your shop. That means you'll need to hit 50 per month, and fix all of their PC - Y2K issues, consistently, with no other support burdens, between now and 2000. Can you pull that off?

Ignore Y2K the PC at your peril!!!


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