The welfare State today is the great hope of voters. The State is viewed as a healer. It promises to provides a safety net for failure, disasters, and inconveniences. The State has replaced God in the twentieth century as men's earthly hope.

This hope will be shattered in 2000. Overnight, the checks will stop coming. The promises will be broken. The dream will die. What will replace this dream? As yet, we do not know. What will replace the lost income? We do not know. For some people, income will simply stop. How many? Millions. Maybe tens of millions. Maybe more.

This political rule cannot be broken: power flows to those who take responsibility. In some communities, this will be churches. In others, this will be gangs. One thing is certain: if the national governments cannot provide the money, they will lose power, especially in small towns and rural areas.

The public is dependent on the State to a degree undreamed of in 1960, let alone 1930. People have made their long-term plans -- or refused to make any plans -- on the assumption that the State will always be there to bail them out. This assumption will not survive 2000.

All over the world, overnight, the welfare State economies will die. The world will get a lesson in the trustworthiness of political promises.

There will be shifts in power in 2000 and beyond that today's politicians and bureaucrats cannot imagine. They sit there today, confident that their pronouncements will be obeyed. They assume that their laws are enforceable. They assumer that people will do what they're told. Not for much longer.

If the welfare checks stop, governments will fall, all over the world.

Plan on it.

And if you ask yourself, "How could this happen to us?" read the poem that told us why back in 1919. (January 3, 1998 entry.)

Updated -	Subject
30-Jan-97	Social Security's Race Against the Clock
26-May-97	Medicare: Government Reports on a Looming Crisis
28-May-97	Social Security's Enormous Task: A Summary
17-Sep-97	Medicare: Back to the Drawing Board!
05-Nov-97	Social Security: Computer Crash Threat, Says Government
17-Nov-97	Social Security: Lines of Uncorrected Code Just Doubled
01-Dec-97	Social Security Says, No Problem (33m Extra Lines of Code)
31-Dec-97	Social Security Is Still in Trouble, Says GAO
03-Jan-98	The 1919 Poem That Said This Would Happen
06-Jan-98	Sen. Grassley Warns Social Security: No Contingency Plans
09-Jan-98	Medicare to Vendors: Fix It Or Else! (Or Else What?)
13-Jan-98	Social Security: Government Warns of Major Problems
20-Jan-98	Medicare's Nightmare
17-Mar-98	Social Security Promises Efficiency in 2000
07-Apr-98	Sen. Grassley Warns Social Security: Start Cooperating!
16-Apr-98	Australia: 2 Million Checks a Month, Hand-Written
11-May-98	Soothing Words from Medicare Senior Official -- But No Proof
11-May-98	Social Security: 90% Compliant (Except Where It Isn't)
12-May-98	Medicare: Don't Count On It, Says GAO's Y2K Specialist
12-May-98	Social Security: Beware the Hype
12-May-98	Medicare's Contractors Are Dead if Their Vendors Miss the Deadline
22-May-98	Social Security Draws Up Contingency Plans
28-May-98	Medicare Is Almost Compliant, Says Medicare
08-Jun-98	Social Security Depends on the Treasury's Computers